


Axioms of Probability

by flibbertygigget



Category: Hamilton - Miranda
Genre: Alternate Universe- Powers, Math, duel
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2016-01-31
Updated: 2016-01-31
Packaged: 2018-05-17 09:16:53
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: Major Character Death
Chapters: 1
Words: 1,244
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/5863381
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/flibbertygigget/pseuds/flibbertygigget
Summary: <blockquote class="userstuff">
              <p>Aaron Burr had always been a gambler.</p><p>Not in games of loo or whist or at the horseraces where so many resigned their fortunes. No, Aaron Burr was a different type of gambler, the kind who could see probabilities and outcomes clearly, who could see how they rose and fell with the passage of time.</p>
            </blockquote>





	Axioms of Probability

Aaron Burr had always been a gambler.

Not in games of loo or whist or at the horseraces where so many resigned their fortunes. No, Aaron Burr was a different type of gambler, the kind who could see probabilities and outcomes clearly, who could see how they rose and fell with the passage of time.

Aaron Burr did not believe in fate.

Aaron Burr believed in the numbers.

_ What are the odds that God’s put us all in one spot? _

**0.002%**

Aaron Burr didn't rush into decisions in a fit of passion. Hamilton pushed forward despite the odds against him - and won.

Around Hamilton, Burr constantly asked himself the probabilities. What were the odds of Hamilton being there? 0.13% What were the odds of them surviving the war? 15% The odds were constantly against them, but Hamilton didn't hesitate, unrestrained by the knowledge of how unlikely them living through the next battle was, amassing more and more to lose, raising the stakes. Burr was cautious, erring towards the options with more favorable odds.

Eventually, Burr knew that Hamilton's luck would run out. His streak would be broken, and Hamilton would lose everything. Like Icarus, his fall would be glorious, because Burr knew that Hamilton would be dragged downwards kicking and screaming, always poised squarely against the odds.

But Hamilton didn't fall. Instead he grew: Washington's right hand man, Schyler’s son-in-law, the hero of Yorktown. And Burr, with his careful planning and perpetual caution, fell behind, trying to outshine the sun.

_ What are the odds the Constitution fails? _

**83%**

Burr was smart enough to not allow himself to get roped into anything foolhardy. Certainly, the Revolution had been unlikely, but he had watched the probability tick steadily upwards. It had been a gamble, but one that had paid off. But this?

This was Hamilton, grin on his face, asking Burr to defend an usurpation. That was what it would be considered, Burr knew, if/when it failed. Those involved would be hanged for treason. Burr had his Theodosias, so no matter how much he agreed with the convention, he could not take that risk.

He shut the door in Hamilton's face. Hamilton could find some other idealistic fools to write with him and be hanged with him. Burr was confident that he had done what was necessary. 

The probability of the Constitution failing had withered down to 3% by the time that New York ratified it.

Burr told himself that he didn't regret the choice that he'd made. He told himself that he'd played it safe, waiting to make his move until he’d seen which government would prevail. He told himself that the odds had been impossible, but…

But he saw the doors of fame thrown open for so many, ripe for the taking, as he himself stood outside, paralyzed by the odds. He saw the probabilities changing almost at random as deals were made and coalitions formed far away from anyone's sight. 

So Burr decided that he would not be controlled by the numbers any longer. He would make his own probabilities.

Chances of winning Senator as a Federalist? 35% Chance of winning as a Democratic Republican? 

Burr made his decision.

_ What are the odds of Hamilton lying? _

**0%**

Burr could barely believe it. For Hamilton to risk everything, his marriage, his integrity as a public official, over a woman was unthinkable. And to tell Jefferson, Madison, and him, the three people (loathe though Burr was to count himself among them) most likely to use it against Hamilton, was senseless.

What were the odds that one of them would tell? 50% The odds weren't what Burr would call comforting to either of them. Of course, it hardly mattered considering what came next.

The Reynolds Pamphlet. Burr had been right, Hamilton's fall was terrible and glorious, 95 pages of heat and glaring light enough to melt the wings of any Icarus. For once Hamilton's railing against the odds had failed, and what were the odds that the pamphlet wouldn't damage him? 0.1%, a laughably small number.

The Democratic Republican party had won. Hamilton had destroyed first Adams, then himself, and now there was nothing to stand in their way.

What were the odds of the Democratic Republican party winning the election of 1800? 77% Burr would take those odds.

_ What are the odds of Hamilton destroying me? _

**79%**

Burr tied with Jefferson in the Electoral College. The vote went to the House, and Burr began to monitor the odds almost obsessively. On one hand, the plan had been to have Jefferson as President and Burr as Vice President. On the other hand…

On the other hand, Burr had too much pride and ambition to fall away. He wouldn't back down, wouldn't discourage his friends from attempting to get him elected. He knew it was a slim chance, only 17% that enough will defect to him, but it was a game he was to play. He wouldn't give up a chance to beat the odds as Hamilton so often had. 

Of course it was Hamilton who ruined him. It always came back to Hamilton, who could succeed and fail against tremendous odds, who was a gambler in a way that Burr could never be. No sooner had Burr's chances began to tick upwards - 18%, 20%, 25% - then Hamilton began to spew his inky venom.

There were lies, vicious lies, but Burr was used to those. Hamilton had said it all before, ever since Burr had stolen Phillip Schyler's Senate seat and earned an enemy. No, it was the way that Hamilton seemed to control the probabilities as he always did, in a way that Burr never could, not even with his power. It was the way that Hamilton so easily tore away the favorable odds that Burr had so patiently constructed as though they were nothing.

Burr feared nothing more than being nothing.

_ What are the odds of us getting out intact? _

**5%**

Burr should have let Hamilton be as he had so many times before. He should have retreated, licking his wounds. He should have waited, as he always had, for the odds to again favor him.

Instead, he wrote a letter. Two exchanges later and he had challenged Hamilton to a duel.

What were the odds of him dying? 15% Too much, still too much, because he had Theodosia to think of and he couldn't leave her alone. He vowed that this would not be the end of him.

They met at Weehawken. Sweat glistened at Hamilton's brow, though from nerves or from the July heat Burr couldn't say. The numbers that always accompanied him seemed to press upon Burr, demanding that he listen.

Most disputes die and no one shoots. What were the odds here? 12%, too small, too small to make a difference. What were the odds that Hamilton was a better shot? 98% What were the odds of Burr winning? 0.5% What were the odds… the odds…

Burr shot, his aim true. Hamilton shot, his bullet blazing through the sky.

“Wait!”

Burr surged forward towards his friend, his enemy, but arms held him back. What were the odds of Hamilton surviving? 0.13%, but Hamilton had beaten those odds before. Hamilton had gone up against greater odds to be here, bleeding beneath Burr's bullet, so he had to… he had to…

What were the odds of Hamilton surviving? 0%

_ Am I the villain in your history? _

**100%**


End file.
